Value at Risk (VaR) Calculator
Estimate the most you should expect to lose on a crypto position over a given horizon, at a chosen confidence level, using the parametric (variance–covariance) method.
Result
Enter values to see the result.
How to use the Value at Risk (VaR) Calculator
- 1Enter your Position value (in USD).
- 2Enter your Daily volatility (std dev) (in %) — Typical daily move. BTC ≈ 3–4%, alts higher.
- 3Enter your Horizon (in days).
- 4The result and full breakdown update instantly — no signup, no waiting, and your numbers never leave your browser.
About the Value at Risk (VaR) Calculator
Estimate the most you should expect to lose on a crypto position over a given horizon, at a chosen confidence level, using the parametric (variance–covariance) method. It's a free tool in our portfolio tools collection on TheCryptoTools, runs entirely in your browser, and works on mobile. If you found it useful, try Maximum Drawdown Calculator, Two-Asset Portfolio Volatility Calculator and Risk of Ruin Calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
＋What is Value at Risk?
VaR is a single number that answers: 'over this period, at this confidence level, how much could I lose?' A 1-day 95% VaR of $500 means that on 95% of days your loss should stay under $500.
＋Which method does this use?
The parametric (variance–covariance) method: it assumes returns are roughly normal and scales daily volatility by the square root of time, then multiplies by the confidence z-score.
＋What are the limits of VaR?
It says nothing about how bad the other 5% (or 1%) of days get, and crypto returns have fatter tails than a normal distribution — so real extreme losses can exceed VaR. Pair it with max drawdown and stress tests.
＋How do I find daily volatility?
Use the standard deviation of daily returns over a recent window (30–90 days). Bitcoin often sits near 3–4% daily; smaller altcoins can be double that or more.
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For educational purposes only. Value at Risk (VaR) Calculator results are estimates, not financial advice.