What if you had invested?

How to read the result

The drawdown matters more than the final number

Almost every long crypto backtest ends in profit, because almost every one of them starts before a bull market. The figure worth looking at is the deepest fall along the way. A plan that ended up +400% but was down 80% in the middle is only a good plan if you would genuinely have held through the 80% — and most people discover that they would not have, after they have already sold.

Buying regularly and buying once answer different questions

A lump sum tells you what one decision on one date produced. Buying regularly spreads the entry across every price in the period, which almost always produces a worse number than catching the exact bottom and a much better one than catching the exact top. Switch between the two on the same dates to see how much of a result was timing rather than the asset.

Why the annualised figure changes between the two

For a lump sum we show CAGR, which is honest because every dollar was exposed for the whole period. For a regular buy that would flatter the result: the money you added last month has not had years to compound. So that case reports a money-weighted return instead, which discounts each contribution by how long it was actually invested.

What this deliberately leaves out

Trading fees, spreads, withdrawal fees and tax. All four reduce a real result, and the last one can be the largest — if you want that part, the tax report works out the actual capital gain for your jurisdiction. This page also assumes you bought at the daily close and never sold.