Risk of Ruin Calculator
Estimate the probability that a trading strategy blows up, from your win rate, risk per trade and reward-to-risk ratio via Monte Carlo.
Result
Enter values to see the result.
How to use the Risk of Ruin Calculator
- 1Enter your Win rate (in %).
- 2Enter your Risk per trade (in %).
- 3Enter your Reward : risk (in : 1).
- 4Enter your Ruin drawdown (in %).
- 5Enter your Trades simulated.
- 6The result and full breakdown update instantly β no signup, no waiting, and your numbers never leave your browser.
About the Risk of Ruin Calculator
Estimate the probability that a trading strategy blows up, from your win rate, risk per trade and reward-to-risk ratio via Monte Carlo. It's a free tool in our trading calculators collection on TheCryptoTools, runs entirely in your browser, and works on mobile. If you found it useful, try Crypto Profit Calculator, Crypto DCA Calculator and Position Size Calculator.
π Learn more
How much should you risk per trade? Learn fixed-fractional sizing, the Kelly Criterion, and why half-Kelly is the practical sweet spot.
Why a 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover, how long losing streaks really get, and how to size trades so a bad run cannot end you.
Frequently asked questions
οΌWhat is risk of ruin?
The probability that a string of losses drags your account down to a level you define as 'ruined' (here, a chosen drawdown). Even a profitable edge can have meaningful ruin risk if you bet too big.
οΌHow do I lower it?
Risk less per trade, improve your win rate or reward-to-risk, and avoid over-leveraging. Halving your risk per trade usually cuts ruin risk sharply.
οΌWhy does the result vary slightly?
It's a Monte Carlo estimate using random trade sequences, so it moves a little between runs while staying in a consistent range.
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For educational purposes only. Risk of Ruin Calculator results are estimates, not financial advice.